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 Classification:    UNCLASSIFIED      Status:       [STAY]
 Document Date:     O1 Oct 90         Category:     [CAT]
 Report Type:       JPRS Report       Report Date:
 Report Number:     JPRS-USS-91-003   UDC Number:
 Author(s):  Aleksandr Mikhaylovich Demidov, candidate of
 philosophical sciences and head of the Sector for
 Studying Public Opinion of Muscovites of the Sociology
 Institute under the USSR Academy of Sciences]
 Source~Line:  915D0004G Moscow SOTSIOLOGICHESKIYE ISSLEDOVANIYA in
 Russian No 10, Oct 90 (signed to press 30 Aug 90) pp
 123-128
 Subslug:  [Article by Aleksandr Mikhayiovich Demidov, candidate of
 philosophical sciences and head of the Sector for Studying
 Public Opinion of Muscovites of the Sociology Institute
 under the USSR Academy of Sciences]
 FULL TEST OF ARTICLB:
 1.  [Article by Aleksandr Mikhaylovich Demidov, candidate of
 philosophical sciences and head of the Sector for Studying Public
 Opinion of Muscovites of the Sociology Ins- ti~u~un~Tcer the USSFZ-
 Academy of Sciences]
 2.  [Text] The elections of people's deputies to the republic and
 local soviets have concluded. Now the bodies of legislative power
 have been reorganized from top to bottom on a fundamentally new
 basis. Certain results can be given. In the given article, an
 analysis of the political situation has been made from the viewpoint
 of two previous election campaigns and the results of studying public
 opinion among the Moscow residents and these were obtained in the
 course of regular polls of the capital's population over the last 18
 months. In particular, let us examine in greater detail how the state
 of public opinion influenced voter behavior fn the choice of the
 elections, and for this we must ascertain, in the first place, the
 general background of the election fight or, in other words, voter
 opinion on urgent problems of the sociopolitical and economic life of
 the nation. Secondly, the attitude of the public to the electoral
 system, thirdly, assessments of the organization and execution of the
 election campaign, and finally, and fourthly, voter preferences on
 the candidates for people's deputies.
 3.  The election campaign began to get underway at the end of the
 fourth year of perestroyka, some 6 months after the 19th All-Union
 Party Conference and on which public opinion placed great hopes for
 Approved or Release
 UNCLASSIFIED   !~   ~?~ ~_~
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 improving the state of affairs in all spheres of our life. They had
 dust adopted the amendments and supplements to the. USSR Constitution
 as well as the new Law on the Elections of USSR People's Deputies.
 During this period after the excitement which accompanied the
 preparations for the party forum, there was a definite drop in the
 public mood and again skeptical notes could be clearly heard.  This
 was manifested above all in the attitude toward the party. `chile
 prior to the conference more than 'h of those questioned assumed that
 the authority and influence of the CPSU in society were rising,
 around 1/5 voiced the opinion that there would not be any changes and
 only 3 percent assumed that over the long run party authority and
 influence should decline, while the cross-section of public opinion
 after the concluding of the 19th Party Conference provided a
 completely different picture. Only 23 percent of those questioned
 pointed to increased authority and influence of the party, while 37
 percent stated that the situation had not changed at all and 17
 percent of the respondents spoke directly about a decline in CPSU
 authority. (We would point out, incidentally, that a year later, in
 the summer of 1989, 70 percent of those questioned now pointed to a
 decline in confidence in the CPSU )
 4.  The Kuscovites also took a very skeptical attitude toward
 amendments in the USSR Gonstitution concerning the electoral system.
 In December 1989, only 18 percent of those polled felt that the
 adopted laws to a significant degree wou-ld-~cozctr~buteto--the------ --
 development of democracy in the nation. Such skepticism was fully
 explainable since over a protracted historical period we have adopted
 a multiplicity of good laws, decrees and decisions which were later
 emasculated in the course of their practical implementation by the
 executive bodies which concentrated real political. and economic power
 in their hands. In particular, doubt was voiced over the procedure
 for electing (1/3) of the people's deputies .:from the public
 organizations, the procedure for proposing and registering candidate
 deputies, the antidemocratic practice of preelection district
 meetings which steadily filtered out declared candidates to the
 benefit of the partocracy. All of this could not help but tell on the
 state of public opinion and the attitude of the population to the
 adopted election laws.
 5.  The negative views in the minds of the people were intensified by
 the slipping of the economic reform.  According to the same poll,
 3ust 6 percent of the respondents felt that the state of the national
 economy was satisfactory while around 70 percent was critical. The
 problems of interethnic relations began to. cause ever-greater fears.
 Only Soviet foreign policy and domestic democratization were viewed
 affirmatively, however even here 55 percent of those questioned
 expressed satisfaction with what had been achieved.
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 6.  The listed processes in mass conscience occurred against the
 background of its further politization, greater activeness of the
 broad strata and groups of the public, the developing independent
 movement and the flourishing of street democracy. It is no surprise
 that under these conditions there was a sharp rise in the overall
 critical attitude which accompanied an assessment of the course of
 perestroyka as a whole. Around 'h of those polled pointed out that
 their hopes tied to perestroyka had not been realized, 37 percent
 said this had partially been realized and only 3 percent of the
 respondents had hopes that were fully realized.
 7.  Under these conditions, just what characterized the 1989 election
 campaign? First of all, there was voter activeness which increased as
 voting day drew closer.  Remaining in our memory were stormy voter
 district meetings which, as a rule, lasted far beyond midnight,
 televised and nontelevised debates of the candidates, official and
 independent posters and leaflets which praised certain candidates and
 were often inaccurate about others, pickets at subway stations and
 many other attributes of a real developing political struggle.
 8.  What candidate deputies did the Muscovites prefer?  First of all,
 the voters focused on personality. For more than 'h of those polled,
 the main thing was human and professional qualities in the candidate
 and not his position, profession or even belonging to one or another
 sociopolitical organization. Among-the -personal quaIitie?~n Est
 place were put honesty, decency and a feeling of social justice. Such
 preferences of course were manifested due to the stereotype which has
 formed in mass conscience of the corrupted representative of power,
 the bureaucrat, concerned solely with his own problems, worried about
 his personal privileges and violating social justice. In addition, an
 absence of a developed political structure in society was felt and
 this did not make it possible for the voter to focus on the
 membership of the candidate in one or another political organization.
 Party membership was not a factor which determined voter choice. But
 there was the other factor that belonging to the party apparatus
 immediately reduced the candidate's chances. The most popular with
 the Muscovites were representatives of the creative intelligentsia,
 including journalists, scientists and writers. In second place came
 workers followed by economic leaders.
 9.  In preparing to vote, the voters most often focused on the
 candidate's election program and more precisely on his position and
 attitude toward urgent problems. These possibly were not so apparent
 in the text of the program as they were in the entire flow of
 information which the candidate was able to get across to the voter.
 Incidentally, in 1989, the voters obtained the basic mass of
 information needed by them from the mass information media, followed
 by pamphlets and election posters and to a lesser degree from the
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 personal speeches of the candidate deputies.
 10.  ~ihat did the Muscovites not like in the preparations for last
 year's elections? Above we have spoken about the shortcomings of the
 legislation apparent in the stage of discussing the draft Election
 Law. These views (the district meetings, the elections in public
 organizations and the procedure for putting up candidates) continued
 to cause dissatisfaction in the course of the election campaign
 itself. People expressed greatest dissatisfaction over the unequal
 status of the candidates (having in mind primarily the material and
 technical opportunities to conduct an election campaign) as well as
 the creating of beneficial conditions by the authorities for some and
 obstacles for others who were  "not to the liking"  of the party
 apparatus for various reasons. In addition, the persons questioned by
 us pointed to the discourtesy in conducting the election campaign and
 the use of prohibited methods, primarily attempts to compromise the
 opponent.
 11.  Regardless of the listed shortcomings recorded by mass
 conscience, as a whole, around 80 percent of the Muscovites was
 satisfied with the 1989 election results as persons having real
 authority among the people and who are active supporters of
 perestroyka became deputies.
 12.  The First Congress of USSR People's Qeputies whi~h~ilowed--the-----
 electfons for the first time in our history demonstrated real
 political pluralism in the superior bodies of the nation. The
 critical and sharp judgments heard from such a high rostrum simply
 shocked many. In any event, virtually no one was indifferent. From
 the obtained data, 96-98 percent of the Muscovites followed the
 entire work of the congress and a large portion did this regularly.
 13.  The respondents also judged the democraticness of the congress
 work very high. As for the assessments of the success of the
 congress's work, here our polls showed significant fluctuations
 depending upon the events occurring at the congress. From 24 percent.
 to 36 percent of the Muscovites on one or another day pointed out
 that the congress was going much more successfully than they had
 expected.
 14.  The public polls conducted a day later clearly recorded both the
 increased expectations and a certain disappointment with the results
 of the congress. While prier to its start, some (2/3) of the
 Muscovites assumed that the work of the deputies would be successful
 and effective, after the conclusion only a third of those polled. gave
 such a view.
 15.  The First Congress of People's Deputies accelerated the
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 development of political processes in the nation and activated mass
 conscience. The escaped genie of pluralism caused a reassessment of
 existing notions and stereotypes. This has begun to be apparent in
 the views of not only history but also the modern political system.
 In July 1989, over 'h of the Muscovites uniformly favored the repeal
 of Article 6 of the USSR Constitution.  The attitude toward a
 multiparty system became more tolerant, although the dominant view in
 social conscience in that period was that in and of itself a
 multiparty system does not determine the level of democracy in the
 nation. Possible factions in the Congress and in the party itself
 began to seem acceptable although the opinion still prevailed that it
 was better to maintain unity.
 16.  Some 10-13 percent of the Muscovites questioned by us during
 that period were firm supporters of maintaining the principles of the
 former political system, around 25 percent favored insignificant
 changes in maintaining the underlying principles of the former
 system, 10-15 percent were unable to voice their position while
 around 50 percent favored substantial changes in the sphere of
 sociopolitical relations.
 17.  If one speaks about individual sociodemographic groups, the more
 critical and radical judgments were voiced by the ITR [engineer and
 technical personnel] and (to a somewhat lesser degree) by
 representatives of the intelligentsia no~e~played-in productian-
 (physicians, teachers, scientists and journalists), more moderate by
 workers as well as employees of state institutions. In the age groups
 standing out is the middle generation of 30-45-year-olds who were
 most critical of the situation and maintained more radical judgments
 on many questions even fn comparison with the youth. In terms of
 educational level, one can trace a clearly expressed linear
 dependence: the higher the education, the more critical assessments
 and radical judgments.
 18.  Among the events which had a noticeable impact on the state of
 mass political conscience during the period between the 19$9 and 1990
 electoral campaigns, one must also mention the wave of strikes which
 swept the nation in the summer of 1989 and the regular outbursts at
 the centers of interethnic conflicts. The attitude of the Muscovites
 to strikes was complex: of course, they are undesirable and cause
 great harm but sometimes they are admissible and even necessary. In
 one way or another, in being superimposed on the increasing problems
 and difficulties in the economic sphere, the wave of strikes
 heightened the critical attitudes in society. There was a clearly
 voiced demand for more decisive changes, however there was no
 unanimity over the question of precisely what changes were required.
 For example, on the question of introducing a ratzon system for
 supply, the opinions of the Muscovites were split virtually equally.
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 The supporters and opponents of market relations also were evenly
 split.
 19.  In addition to the economic problems related to the public's
 notions primarily of the supply of vital necessities and which for
 the last 2 years has been in first place in terms of importance in
 the course of our polls, with the start of autumn the problem of
 combating crime emerged in second place in terms of importance in the
 public conscience, in bypassing the problem of protecting the
 environment.  Interethnic relations in the capital itself did not
 greatly bother the Muscovites although (1/3) of our respondents still
 noticed their exacerbation in Moscow as well.
 20.  The absence of real headway in resolving the listed problems
 very noticeably reduced the credit of trust in the measures of the
 superior authorities and the policy of perestroyka as a whole. The
 obtained data concerning public opinion showed that the expectations
 of a majority of those polled were not being met and as a whole the
 situation in the nation was deteriorating. A further decline in the
 authority of the CPSU and its leading bodies was also recorded.
 21.  In analyzing the state of mass conscience in that period, one
 cannot help but mention the growing independent movement and the
 appearance of alternative political structures in the form of
 associations, platforms and actually parties. This led as a resin  to  ~--
 the formation of electoral blocs in the 1990 elections. ~Thile in
 1989, the numerous  "informal "  organizations did not represent a
 real political force and a majority of the Muscovites did not see
 them as real claimants to power, after the First Congress of People's
 Deputies, the situation began to change. A major role was played by
 the establishing of the Interregional Deputy Group (MDG) and around
 this the alternative political structures began to gather. At the end
 of 1989, our poll showed that the activities of the MDG were approved
 basically by 57 percent of the Muscovites. The results of the past
 elections to the Moscow Soviet and the RSFSR from Moscow showed that
 this support from the public has increased.
 22.  Along with the listed trends, we cannot help but mention one
 other, rather contradictory trend in mass conscience, and which
 rather strongly influenced voter behavior in the course of the 1990
 elections. We said that a pluralism of opinions, a boldness of
 judgments and vivid speeches at the first congress were welcomed by
 the public, however over time the street democracy began to cause
 irritation. This trend was apparent with particular strength after
 the Second Congress of People's Deputies which caused dissatisfaction
 among a significant portion of the public precisely due to the lack
 of decisions on the most important questions of the state structure,
 property and so forth.
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 23.  Precisely this determined, in our view, the mood with which the
 voters entered the 1990 election campaign.  Even 3 months prior to
 the elections, the mass information media began to note a certain
 decline in voter activeness in comparison with the previous year,
 although interest in the coming elections was quite high: over 70
 percent of those polled pointed out that they were concerned who
 would be elected as members of the republic and local soviets. During
 that period around 74 percent of the Muscovites intended to vote on 4
 March.  However, at the end of January and the beginning of February
 1990, we recorded a decline in the given indicator by 10 percent.
 However, in our view, this showed not so much a drop fn the
 activeness of the Muscovites as a response to a number of questions
 which arose in the course of the election campaign.
 24.  As a result, the Law on Elections to the Republic and Local
 Soviets was positively received. There was satisfaction, first of
 all, with the abandoning of the district meetings and the election of
 deputies by public organizations.  However, the very procedure and
 organization of the elections undoubtedly influenced the fact that on
 4 March a significantly smaller number of Muscovites went to the
 voter urns than in the previous spring. The electing of deputies all
 at once to three levels of soviets in four voter districts, the
 necessity of making one's way through 20 or 30 names of candidates of
 course could not help but lead to confusion among a por~an of--tie
 voters and a refusal to vote generally, as a sort of defensive
 response. Moreover, the distribution of information about the
 candidates was extremely poorly organized.  Even official election
 posters appeared in Moscow in a majority of the districts only 2
 weeks prior to the elections. In this sense the provision of the law
 on observing the equality of candidates in utilizing materiel for the
 election campaign did poor service. The candidates were fettered in
 their actions, looking hopefully at the district commissions which
 were unable to promptly get the necessary information to the public.
 According to our data, a predominant majority of the voters a month
 prior to the elections did not know a single one of their candidates
 to all levels of the soviets.
 25.  Thus, while in the course of the 1989 campaign, there was a
 tendency for growing voter activity among the public and a focus on
 participation in voting as election day drew near, in the spring of
 1990, the trend was the reverse.
 26.  The preference of the Muscovites on their candidate people's
 deputies as a whole was the same as in the spring of 1989, however
 the criteria of the social justice, honesty and incorruptibility of
 the candidate, in remaining extremely high for the voters, moved to
 second place, giving way to competence. It is no accident that
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 lawyers were given the highest rating among all professions.
 Undoubtedly, the voters were led to this by observing the work of the
 USSR people's deputies.
 27.  The demands of competence, a knowledge of the laws and
 professional political skills which the voters placed on the deputies
 reflect the current level of our experience in parliamentary
 activities. In the future, we feel, precisely civil, political and
 moral positions will again emerge in the forefront among the demands
 made on the deputies, since professionalism is required primarily for
 experts. In any event, no competent deputy can possess professional
 knowledge on all discussed questions. There is no need for this.
 28.  What else influenced the choice of the Muscovites? An important
 factor was the place of residence of the candidate. Around 70 percent
 of the Moscow voters preferred to see a deputy residing in their
 rayon. And this applied not only to the elections to the rayon soviet
 but also to the Moscow Soviet and even the Russian Parliament. As a
 result, 80 percent of the elected deputies of the Moscow Soviet
 reside in the region where they ran.  Party affiliation of the
 candidates, as before, did not have great importance for the voters,
 however in comparison with the 1989 elections, there was a tendency
 to prefer nonparty persons. This also was reflected in the voting
 results: 58 percent of the communists was elected to the Moscow
 Soviet and this was 'k less in comparison w~h tTie maw of -f~ie~TSSR-"--
 people's deputies.
 29.  The people preferred candidates whom they knew better, as they
 say, recognizing their face. This was the case if the candidate was
 not a resident but at least worked in the rayon. The voters also
 preferred to be personally acquainted with the candidate, either in
 meetings or at least in TV debates. Newspaper articles or even
 pamphlets had significantly less effect since the people did not
 trust the impartiality of the press. Maie candidates were preferred
 over female. The voters focused rather strongly on the support of
 workers but due to the fact that extremely few of them were running,
 the share of this social group in the make-up of the new soviets was
 small.
 30.  The appearance of preelection blocs, a sort of prototype of
 political parties of the parliamentary type became one other
 important and new aspect in the 1990 election campaign in comparison
 with the spring of last year.  These were primarily Democratic Russia
 and the bloc of Sociopatriotic Movements of Russia. While at the
 outset the Muscovites did not pay particular attention to the
 belonging of the candidates to one or another official or unofficial
 political organization, after Democratic Russia published voter rolls
 the situation changed. The belonging to one or another bloc began to
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 determine voter choice. The chances of independent candidates
 declined significantly.
 31.  The satisfaction of the Muscovites with the election results of
 the people's deputies was substantially lower than in the spring of
 1989. Around 45 percent of those questioned stated that they were
 rather satisfied and almost the same number, some 40 percent, said
 that they were rather dissatisfied with the voting results. What was
 the reason for this? In our view, there were several of them. In the
 first place, the overall dissatisfaction with the organization of the
 election campaign and this dissatisfaction to one degree or another
 was expressed by a predominant majority of our respondents and was
 also partially transferred to the +~oting results. Secondly, the
 polarizing of the political farces naturally led to a polarizing of
 evaluations with some candidates being victors and others not.
 Thirdly, while in 1989, the very opportunity of a real choice caused
 satisfaction, now this was not enough. Demands also increased on both
 the candidates and the election system. Finally, and fourthly, there
 was also a general strengthening of critical attitudes in society.
 For this reason, the assessment of the voting results seems natural
 to us and not so low.
 32.  In one way or another the current political structure in society
 is transitional, unformed and rapidly changing.  The processes in
 mass conscience correspond to such a situati-on:Tn concluding an---------
 analysis of the political situation based on the results of studying
 the public opinion of Muscovites over the last 18 months, we would
 like to point out the basic aspects of these processes.
 33.  The activating of public conscience is continuing. In recent
 months, this has assumed a qualitatively different character. While
 initially one observed basically a rise in the activeness of the
 various strata and groups in the public and the involvement of people
 in politics, at present there is not merely the politicizing of
 conscience but also the mass defining of one's positions and the
 polarizing of political views.
 34.  The present period in the development of society is also
 characterized by a radicalizing of the attitudes of people.  At
 present, public opinion, as a rule, is ahead of those reforms which
 the authorities are carrying out. A majority of the Muscovites
 questioned by us expressed a demand for radical changes in all the
 life of the nation.  This trend partially determines political
 sympathies, too.
 35.  The contradictions between the expectations of the public and
 their realization intensify the critical mood. People no longer want
 to accept many fewer shortcomings in comparison with those they
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 tolerated previously. A manifestation of this is, for example, the
 loss of trust in a majority of the official and unofficial political
 institutions.
 36.  One other trend in the mass conscience at present is its growing
 mysticalness and the appearance of this we are encountering
 everywhere. This involves both a belief in miracles, flying saucers,
 the growing influence of various prophets, including
 psychotherapists, and much else.
 37.  Finally, and most importantly, one observes a democratizing of
 social conscience and this slowly is accepting democratic principles
 and models of political behavior.  This is manifested primarily in a
 definite change in the attitude toward a pluralism of opinions, a
 multiparty system, the rights of the majority and opposition and
 informal structures. At the same time, for now this process is just
 beginning. The transition from the old totalitarian thinking will be
 rather complex and painful.  In mass conscience we are still clearly
 recording views of rigid control and regulation of social life,
 intolerance of. other opinions and leveling attitudes.
 38.  An important aspect which characterizes the state of social
 conscience is its particular emotional background. In the current
 political situation, political moods and emotions play a very marked
 role. If we turn again to the previous- elect           ; we--canna-----
 help but point out that precisely emotions often determined voter
 attitudes to a candidate and correspondingly influenced the voting
 results. Public moods are currently very mobile and unstable and the
 clearest indications characterizing the emotional state of mass
 conscience are the appearance of anxiety and hope as well as abrupt
 shifts from one to the other. These are the basic traits of mass
 conscience established as a result of a systematic study of public
 opinion among the Moscow inhabitants in 19$8-1990.
 39.  COPYRIGHT: Izdatelstvo  "Nauka" ,  " Sotsiologicheskiye
 issledovaniya " , 1990.

